Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Ben Stein's Best Thoughts

Sunday's New York Times carried an interesting article which offered Ben Stein's "best thoughts".
I thought I'd share his classic investment advice...

INVEST FOR THE LONG HAUL If you are a smart long-term investor, do not pay any attention to short-term developments. They are often reported by people whose motivation may be to scare you (screaming about the subprime “crisis”) or to make you giddily greedy (screaming about that one certain stock you should buy to retire rich).


Some articles may scare you into selling, or not buying, at the wrong time, because the worse things are, and the worse the mood of speculators, the better the time to buy. Or some may motivate you to buy in excess — sort of like drinking in excess — at exactly the wrong, “irrationally exuberant” time. The people who write some of these articles often know very little about markets, are way too young to have learned much, have no money to invest anyway or just like to act like big shots with your money.


In the very long run, stock prices plus dividends (in the postwar period) have rewarded patient, long-term, careful accumulation of broad indexes, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and variable annuities (with a careful eye on fees). They have not rewarded short-term trading. Such trading based on tips seen on television shows — even shows whose hosts are true comic geniuses with bald heads — or read in magazines can be potentially disastrous. The short term is no place for the ordinary investor to trade.


AVOID INDIVIDUAL STOCKS The data on this is as clear as a bell, and has been compiled by high-end thinkers ranging from Nobel laureates to the best friend the ordinary investor has ever had, John C. Bogle of Vanguard. Basically, you and I cannot pick stocks, except for Berkshire Hathaway. I was recently on a panel with the stock guru Ray Lucia, who offered overwhelming data about how impossible it was to pick stocks, trade in and out of them and fare as well as the market. His data was terrifying.


The people on Wall Street do many questionable things. They reward themselves extremely well. But they have, in the last couple of decades, made it possible for almost anyone to get good results in stocks: buying very broad-based mutual funds, index funds, exchange-traded funds and (with an eye on fees) variable annuities and holding them for a long time. The evidence that this form of investment does better over long periods than trying to pick stocks is simply staggering.


Yes, maybe some gurus at a hedge fund can do it for a while. Maybe your cousin claims that he has done it. Don’t try to do it yourself.


Wall Street, and especially Morgan Stanley, with its fine exchange-traded funds, and Fidelity and Vanguard, with their super-low-cost index funds, have made it possible to be a really good investor. So have many other companies with broad-based mutual funds. You can buy domestic funds, foreign funds, foreign developed markets funds, foreign developing market funds — all at amazingly low transaction costs.


Just for my own bad self, I suggest the Fidelity Spartan Total Market Index fund (FSTVX), a very broad index fund of domestic stocks; the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund (EEM), an exchange-traded fund that invests mostly in developing countries’ markets, and the iShares MSCI EAFE Index fund, for Europe, Australasia and the Far East (EFA),which invests mostly in highly developed in Europe, Japan and Australia. This has allowed the rank amateur to take advantage of the long fall of the dollar because the stocks are priced in foreign currencies that have appreciated against the dollar.


If you feel like throwing around money speculating on individual stocks, go for it — but only after you have several millions in index and other mutual funds and exchange-traded funds and variable annuities. Just as you might stop to gamble $300 as you pass by the craps table at the Mirage on your way back from the meeting to your room, feel free to take a flier on a few stocks just for laughs. But keep it limited.


KNOW THY LIMITATIONS Be aware that there are almost no investment geniuses. The only ones I know of are Warren E. Buffett and John C. Bogle and Jim Rogers. If you want to buy Mr. Buffett’s individual stock, be my guest.







Thursday, October 11, 2007

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MBA Finance Class Investment Information


Will Rogers once said, “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”

Here are some web sites that may be helpful when seeking academic investment information...

Remember, your personal situation is unique, and you might want to get professional investment, tax, accounting and legal advice before you act on any potential investment opportunity. The following list is merely a list of some web sites that you might find helpful in doing preliminary research.

It is NOT intended to be comprehensive or representative of all possible financial web sites... or to be a list of recommendations... or even a list of the very best financial information web sites... just a starting point for further academic research before you actually invest or spend money. Use with caution and at your own risk!

You might want to keep this link handy for future reference... and feel free to share this information with your friends!





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Dan's Online Investment Class Info (available to anyone in the general public - not for MBA students)


Investment Basics course page



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Stock Wiki






TV Video Archives



PBS News Hour Business Reports - Jan-June '08



PBS News Hour Business Reports - July-Dec '08



Charlie Rose Show - occasional business guests



CBC The National


Six Disciplines Videos


Coming Depression Videos




Wall Street Warriors - TV Show




Wall Street Warriors - early review




Wall Street Warriors - Season1: Episodes 2 & 6;  Season 2: Episodes 1, 2, 5, 7, 8 & 10




Wall Street Warriors - Questions for discussion






Clubs




Investment Clubs




Money Club - Introduction




Money Club




Money Club Article

Smart Cookies

Smart Cookies - book





Apple iPhone Applications


PortfolioLive


StockRazor





Finance Principles



10 Fundamentals of Finance

10 Basic Investment Concepts

Stop Wasting Money

 




Corporate Governance Challenges




The Compelling Case for Change 




Aspen Principles




Corporation 20/20





Economy



Financial Crisis Explained - Video

End of Credit Era - But What's Next?

The Big Picture

Briefing.Com

Who Killed the Economy?

Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis

History of Government Bailouts

Economic Doom PPT

Morgan Stanley - Mary Meeker Projections

Venture Capital Business is Broken

Economic Projections - Consumer Electronics

Google is optimistic about 2009!


 


Basics




100 Corporations That Will Survive 100 Years


Yahoo Finance


Google Finance


International Investing


Sane Bull


Fidelity Investment Basics


Why Invest? PPT




Average Consumer Spending 


Average Consumer Spending




Wall Street Firms Capitalization



Investment Basics

Stock Investing

Stock Trading




Mutual Fund Investing


Exchange Traded Funds




Exchange Traded Funds Screener




Exchange Traded Notes 




Exchange Traded Notes




How REITs Work




401 K & IRA

529 & College Savings Plans


eRollover




Yahoo Investment Education 




Standard & Poors




FiscalZen




Personal Finance 




Retirement Calculator


Retirement Planning



Credit Information



Finance@Wikipedia 



Finance Methods & Theories 




Financial Modeling Guide 




World Stock Markets 




Dictionary of financial terms




Mutual Fund Families




Market Daily Summary




Daily Gainers & Losers 


FiLife



Teach Me Finance


Free Credit Reports - Forget copycat sites. This is the official Web site where you can get a
free report from each of the three credit bureaus once a year.

Credit Score - Buy your score from one credit bureau for $15.95 or from all three for
$47.85. Plus, get advice on how to raise your score, and use the site's
EZ Error Correct system to dispute mistakes.

FICO Score - educational info



Tax-withholding calculator


Social Security calculator - Type your name, Social Security number, birth date, birthplace and
mother's name into this secure site, and it will show your estimated
benefits based on your up-to-date earnings record.


Health Insurance Quotes - Provides immediate quotes for most major health insurers and compares
policies. For personalized attention, call 800-977-8860 or find a local broker.


Health Insurance for people with medical conditions or modest incomes.


Medicare - detailed information about Medicare, with excellent tools to help you
pick the best Part D plan or Medicare Advantage policy based on your
specific medications and health condition.


Term Life Insurance - An easy way to get term-insurance rates from many of the top companies.
Call 800-442-9899 for personalized help, especially if you have a
medical condition.


Term Life Insurance - Use this site to see the detailed criteria you must meet to qualify for each company's term-insurance rates.


Auto Insurance - Lets you compare price quotes from several major insurers (the number
varies by state). Also a good resource for money-saving tips on every
kind of insurance. For personal help, contact an agent.


Homeowners Insurance - For a fee of $7.95, you can calculate how much coverage you need. Plug
in data about your home's age, building materials and other details,
and get an immediate estimate of its replacement cost.


Complaints - National Association of Insurance Commissioners
maintains complaint records for each insurer in every state. Focus on
the complaint ratio: the number of complaints for every dollar the
insurer collects in premiums.


Insurance Quotes





Asset Allocation




Diversification Example 




Harvard University Portfolio






America's Challenges:


 

Shift Happens

Perot Charts

Pickens Plan

Pump the Plug

Water Crisis (free book)

Crowdsourcing

The World Is Flat

Hot, Flat & Crowded

Auto Industry Collapse

Google Clean Energy 2030

All About Google PPT




3 Basic Choices...




1. Savings & Interest Rates:



Save for a specific goal - FDIC-insured, minimum goal of $250 and a $25 deposit. Your timetable must be at least three months and no longer than 50 years.Tell SmartyPig how much you need to save and when you need the
money, and it will suggest a monthly contribution to be deducted from
your checking account. And here's SmartyPig's stroke of genius: You can make your account public so family and friends can chip in toward your goal. SmartyPig offers a generous annual yield on the account.
And the company has partnered with more than 25 retailers, such as Amazon.com and Macy's, where you can redeem your savings for a gift card with a bonus of up to 5 percent.


Banks & Rate Info




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Bank Around 




Bank Rates



2. Bond Valuation


Investing in Bonds



Bond Yields (Goldman Sachs - GS)



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Stock Splits (if any)




Fundamental Research:

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MSN Stock Research Wizard - Apple Example




Apple Investment Wiki




Google Stock Screener

FinViz


InvestSide




Whale Wisdom




CNBC Stock Screener

Motley Fool CAPS 




Energy News 




Companies by Sector 




Stocks Listed Alphabetically


 

News & Analyst Upgrades or Downgrades

Know the Company



Technical Research:

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Wall Street Journal Big Charts




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MACD




Stock Mood (free registration required)




Interactive Charts




Stock Alerts





Depression Investing:


Euro Pacific Capital



Corporate Bonds:


Investment Grade Corporate Bonds - LQD



Junk Bonds:


If you think they are going UP in value...


iShares IBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund - HYG


If you think they are going DOWN in value...


Rydex Inverse High Yield Strategy Fund - RYIHX




Employee Benefit Plans:


Vanguard Funds


Excalibur Financial




Play Money Stock Exchanges:




WeSeed

kaChing

Fantasy Stock Exchange



Wall Street Survivor


CNBC - open from time to time




Virtual Stock Exchange

London Stock Exchange Game

Covestor





Portfolio Optimization




Portfolio Monkey 




Detailed Academic Explanation






Crowd Opinions




Stock Moose




Piqqem




Tip'd




StockTwits






Options (i.e. Citigroup, Symbol: C )


 


Yahoo Finance




Yahoo Options Education 




Options Videos 




CBOE Volatility Index 




CBOE Volatility Index - defined


The expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the next 30-day period, on an annualized basis. For example, if the VIX is at 15, this represents an expected annual change of 15%.




CBOE Volatility Index Options


 




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Audio Part 2, ProMoney Talk, 2006 (Starts at 2:25)




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US Mutual Fund Research (i.e. VFINX)

US Mutual Fund Screener

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Exchange Traded Funds Screener

Worksheets / Calculators


Games

Stock Market Game




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Yalicoo

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Trade Your Game Assets - Gold Farming







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Pick What YOU like!


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The IBM Guide

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CEO Gains & Losses


Brokers:

Sharebuilder - Buy by Dollar Amount

E*TRADE

E*TRADE plans to enable U.S. Retail customers to trade on 42 international exchanges (6 currently available) while holding multiple currencies in a single dollar-denominated E*TRADE account.




Interactive Brokers - access over 70 markets worldwide


Currency Trading:

Currency Trading (practice for fun!)




Exchange Traded Notes

FXCM - mentioned on Wall Street Warriors

DailyFX.Com

Currency Mutual Fund



Analysts:

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Value Line Investment Survey

Wall Street Transcript

Morningstar

The Street Ratings

Matrix USA LLC


World Stock Markets

World Markets


 

China Shell Companies

UK

Europe

Asia





Financial Planning:

Financial Planning Basics

SumApp


The Far Side...

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OTC Bulletin Board




S&P Info (if available) on these stocks


Meyer Blinder


Penny Stock Fraudster - video






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Wharton




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SEC Info via Twitter

Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance Video - Tech Ticker

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AOL Money & Finance

Reuters Investing

CNN Money

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CNBC




CNBC - Mad Money - Cramer 




CNBC - Fast Money

Bloomberg

Fox Business News

WikiInvest

Seeking Alpha




Bob's Stock Advice


Kiplinger.Com

Institutional Investor

SFO Magazine

Financial Sense

Stocks & Commodities Magazine

Financial Times of London

The Economist

Euroland

Global Finance Magazine

Global Investor Magazine

World Investment News

UK NewsNow 




UK Financial News




Briefing.Com

Smart Money

Cake Financial

Covester 




Wallet Pop


US Investment Publications:


Business Week

Business Week Statistics

Newsweek

Wall Street Journal

New York Times

News

Business Publications


Investment Tools:


Currency, Metals & Oil Trading (for fun!)

Sector Investing

Exchange Traded Funds

Investors Business Daily Online

The Street University

Value Line University




Interactive Brokers University

Value Line Free RSS Feeds

Investopedia




Once a Month Trading School


Investment Information:



Breaking Views




Florida Trend Wealth Management

London Stock Exchange

Wikipedia Finance

Prosper Loans




Lending Club

Free Corporate Annual Reports

Free Mutual Fund Annual Reports

Free UK Annual Reports 




MergerStat

Investment Clubs

Wharton Professor Investment Strategy

Wharton Professor Investment Book

Investors can improve on index-style investing by also holding stocks with low price-to-earnings ratios and high dividend yields, and by putting as much as 40% of their stock portfolios into foreign issues.

Wharton Professor ETF Index Funds

Ben Stein's Best Thoughts

Second Life Stock Exchange

Wells Fargo Bank - Stagecoach Island




Mozo


Social Networks:


Link to Wall Street


Investing Minds




Trading Gurus




Social Picks 




Covestor 




Duedee




UpDown




Inner8 




Podcasts:


Financial Times of London





Other Information:

Directory

Blog Directory

Podcasts

Social Media




Scottrade Social Community Video (registration required)

Newsletter & RSS Feeds






Blogs


23/7 Wall Street - 25 Best Financial Blogs



1. Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
(7,903 links). Although Mish (aka Mike Shedlock) is not an economist by
training, he adroitly gets into the thick of economic data. Mish looks
at comments made by the major media, so–called experts and government
officials and serves up trenchant analysis based on his impression of
their relevance and validity.  The author is not afraid to attack
conventional wisdom.



2. Footnoted.org (598
links).  The blog’s author, Michelle Leder, digs through SEC filings
and comes up with some of the best insights about the “hidden” comments
found in 8Ks, 10Qs, and other government filings that rarely get as
careful a review.  This is one of the oldest financial blogs, founded
in 2003.



3. Bill Cara’s Cara Community
(389 links) analyzes the capital markets, stock movements, and the
economy with an eye to technical guides including volatility, cash
flows, trading volume, and price performance and is prolific almost
beyond comparison.



4. Infectious Greed (3,822
links). Blogger, Paul Kedrosky, is considered one the preeminent
financial market pundits.  His site reflects the perspective of a
former technology analyst, institutional money manager, and venture
capitalist.  Infectious greed provides a running commentary on global
markets, economic trends, and emerging business trends.



5. Bespoke Invest,
also known as “Think Big” (6,112 links), is the blog for a money
management and research firm.  The site provides a combination of
technical analysis and commentary on macroeconomic trends, major
sectors of the stock market, and currencies.



6. Angry Bear (2,447
links) is the product of a half dozen Ph.D economists, an historian,
and financial professionals.  The writers provide individual
perspectives on broad sectors of the economy based on their unique
training.  They look at topics as varied as worldwide trade and
industrial production as well as US government programs and regulations
like Social Security.



7. The Big Picture by Barry Ritholtz (11,223 links) has recently moved from his long-standing site on typepad, where he's been since 2002, to http://www.ritholtz.com
Ritholtz is one of the most well-respected market and economic pundits
and bloggers who manages money as his day job.  Multiple posts a day on
subjects as diverse as criticisms of the business press, digital media,
and key economic indicators.  Sophisticated analysis made clear by an
unmistakably irreverent voice and excellent use of charts, tables, and
graphs.



8. Naked Shorts
(833 links) covers ETFs, hedge funds, monetary policy, and current
events. Bangs on hedgies and the accounting profession and its
practices.  Not fond of the practices of many US government agencies.



9. A VC (2,777 links).  Long-time
venture capitalist Fred Wilson passes along his opinions on new
technology and how it converges with emerging parts of the economy. 
Wilson talks in detail about where he is investing his venture capital
money and why.  His Union Square Ventures has taken positions in new
ventures including Del.icio.us, Feedburner, and Twitter.



10. SeekingAlpha (63,563
links), the grandfather of financial blog aggregation, also has its own
editors and columnists.  This is by far the largest collection of
financial blog posts in the world. Readers who want to find articles
from hundreds of sites get a one-stop-shop at SeekingAlpha.  If it were
not for this web site, a large number of blogs would have almost no
readers.



11. Clusterstock
(1,613) links) follows and comments on business, the stock market, and
economic news throughout the day.  It has a staff of several
outstanding writers lead by Henry Blodget.  Articles by John Carney are
particularly good.  It is now combined with another strong site called
Silicon Alley Insider.



12. 1440 Wall Street
(1,216 link).  Although the site is “intended for the institutional
equities crowd,” we won’t hold it against them - it’s still very good. 
Covers money markets, sell side, buy side, private equity, Wall St.
research, and media.  Strong analysis.  Strong on multimedia.



13. The Kirk Report
(1,571 links).  This is one of the oldest financial blogs and it has
been consistently good.  It has a number of articles which are simply
links to other sites.  Strong on stock analysis, market
recommendations, and volume investing.  Too bad some of the content
requires being a “member.”



14. Calculated Risk
(11,057 links) is among the most thoughtful and thorough financial
commentary on the internet.  Period. Tears apart poor economic
assumptions. Gets to the heart of the elements that move the economy
and markets.  Big focus on housing and economic analysis



15. Abnormal Returns
(1,009 links).  Disregarding our own rules for what blogs should be on
this list, this site is the only one that simply provides lists of
links to other financial sites. However, there’s a reason we’re making
an exception as these are carefully selected and come with good short
intros.  Links are regularly organized by subject.



16. TraderFeed
(2,437 links).  The author, Brett Steenbarger, is one of the most
intelligent voices in the financial blog business. Strong on technical
analysis, broad market commentary, and the psychology behind trading
behavior.



17. Alpha Trends
(1,046 links).  Extremely strong technical analysis. Good video
commentary which it claims is the highest subscription membership for
financial videos on YouTube.  Covers stocks, ETF, and index movement.



18. Econbrowser (6,597
links). Run by two professors, both with economic backgrounds.  What
readers would expect from academics looking at the markets. Indepth and
often complex analysis of a broad range of topics from infrastructure
to policy making to consumer spendings. More than any other site on
this list, Econ Browser is not for sisses.



19. Peridot Capitalist
(192 links). Written by a money manager, one of the oldest and better
regarded financial blogs. Good corporate earnings analysis and looks at
undervalued stocks.



20. Information Arbitrage
(957 links) The author has been in the M&A and derivatives
businesses for some time.  Strong and rich commentary on current
financial events, investment risks and rewards, and the current credit
and economic crisis.



21. Maoxian (290 links).  Strong
pieces on day trading, technical trading, balance sheets, and ETFs.
Strange graphics. Writer tries to be anonymous, but it hasn’t worked.



22. 10Q Detective
(277 links). Writer has been an equity analyst. Good at digging through
government filings to find information for investors which is both
helpful and sometimes amusing. Good place to read how public companies
“game” the process of SEC reporting.



23. Ticker Sense (538
links).  This site may be the most well known for its weekly poll of
financial blogger sentiments about the market. Written by money
management firm Birinyi Associates.  Has excellent analysis of global
economy and major sectors of the stock market. Use of tables and graphs
is among the best.



24. Upside Trader
(356 links) Good technical analysis which follows the market carefully.
Strong charting on individual companies. Great place for day traders.



25. Carl Futia (133
links).  One of the best financial forecasting blogs.  Employs various
technical analysis including some he has developed.  Notable for his
thoughtful and approachable writing.  Posts very regularly.




Seeking Alpha




Wikivest Wire




Drug Companies


PKS Miami Blog

Blog

Blog

Blog

Blog

Blog

Blog




Blog Post Map Mashup








Ratings Agency




Moodys Sample Report








Commodities




ICE - contracts based on crude oil and refined products, natural gas, power and emissions, as well as agricultural commodities including cocoa, coffee, cotton, ethanol, orange juice, wood pulp and sugar, in addition to foreign currency and equity index futures and options.




Exchange Traded Notes





Day Trading (NOT recommended!)




Trading Tips


SMB Capital (mentioned on Wall Street Warriors)




Trader Daily




Velez Capital Management




Online Trading Platform


Trader's Library






Betting (NOT Legal in the US)

The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 made it illegal for banks and other financial institutions to process online wagers. The goal was to find an indirect way to regulate offshore casinos [… and sportsbooks… and real-money prediction exchanges…], which are outside the jurisdiction of American law enforcement. In short: the casinos are out of reach, but not the banks in the United States that process their transactions.

Bet on the Markets 






Research Tools:





 
Google Docs & Slides

Simultaneous Writing


FlowGram - present using web pages, PowerPoints, photos and voice




WorldCat




Stakeholder Management Template 




10 Types of Innovation


@Risk


Business Plan Outline


Business Model


8th Habit


Six Disciplines


 

 

Country Research:

Country - Korea

Laws - Korea - free registration required

Laws - Florida - free registration required

Culture Video - Korea

Consultant - Korea


Securities Licensing:

Series 7 General Securities Examination covers:


  • Equity Securities

  • Debt Securities

  • Government Securities

  • Municipal Securities

  • Money Market

  • Economics

  • Options

  • Mutual Funds

  • Annuities

  • Issuing Securities

  • Trading

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